The near win is more dangerous than the loss
Most investors expect the hardest moments to arrive when markets fall or results are slow. That is not when strategies break. They break when progress feels close.
I played every game in a season and missed selection for the grand final. The team won without me.
That was the closest I had ever been to something I had chased since I was a kid. And it was the most dangerous moment of my career. Not because we lost. Because we won.
When the outcome feels that close, something shifts. The temptation is not to give up. It is to change course. To push harder, move faster, try something different. I considered walking away from the team entirely.
I stayed. We won a premiership the following year.
What those fifteen years taught me is that proximity creates pressure. After every near miss, the pull to change the plan was stronger than after any loss. Losses are clear. You absorb them and keep going. Near wins are ambiguous. They invite the question: what would have happened if I had done something different?
That question is where strategies unravel.
Where investors feel it
The same pattern shows up in property portfolios, usually at three points.
A small equity lift creates urgency to extract. A strong year creates pressure to upgrade or add something before the window closes. Someone else's result creates doubt about your own pace.
None of these are irrational responses. They feel productive. But they are emotional, and acting on them tends to interrupt compounding at exactly the wrong moment.