The property market crashing is a conversation happening everywhere right now. All over social media posts, news.com.au articles, at dinner tables, in office water cooler chats, you name it. People who own property, people thinking about buying, and people with no immediate plans at all, all arriving at the same conclusion.
Is it about to tank?
This conversation surfaces every time something volatile happens. A rate decision. A global conflict. A bad CPI number. The headline writes itself.
Nobody seems entirely sure of the mechanism. But the confidence is impressive.
The concern isn't unreasonable. Rates are elevated and the economic environment is uncertain. But most people repeating this prediction are working from the wrong mental model. They're thinking about property like shares. And the two don't behave the same way.
Why shares can crash and property structurally can't move at the same speed
In 2020, the ASX fell 35% in 33 days.
That's possible because shares are liquid. Anyone holding can exit in seconds. When sentiment shifts, price follows immediately because the exit door is always open and everyone can reach it at once.
Property has no such door.
A transaction takes 30 to 90 days minimum. A concerned vendor still needs a willing buyer, finance approval, a conveyancer, and a settlement date. By the time that process completes, the moment that triggered the panic has often passed or changed entirely.