Property Market Update — June 2026 | Ideal Buyers Agency
Three rate rises, a landmark federal budget, and a fracturing national market. Here's what buyers in Brisbane Bayside, the Redlands, and South East Queensland need to know right now.
If you've been watching the headlines and wondering whether the national doom and gloom applies to your corner of South East Queensland, the short answer is: not particularly. But that doesn't mean you can tune out. The market has entered a new phase, and understanding how it differs from the national story is what separates smart buyers from nervous ones.
The national picture: a market pulling apart at the seams
For the first time in years, it genuinely matters which city you're in. The national average is increasingly meaningless as a guide to local reality.
The RBA has raised the cash rate three times in 2026, taking it from 3.60% back to 4.35% and reversing every cut made through 2025. Australia's unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% in April, the highest since late 2021, and consumer confidence fell to near-recessionary levels not seen outside of the pandemic or the 1990s recession.
Sydney and Melbourne are in clear retreat, with major banks forecasting falls of six to seven percent in those capitals through 2026. The national capital city median house price dropped 0.8% in the May quarter. NAB's June 2026 Housing Monitor expects a 2% fall in combined capital city prices for the year. Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth are telling a different story.
The May 2026 federal budget also landed the most significant shake-up to property taxation in nearly three decades. From 1 July 2027, negative gearing for established residential property purchased after budget night will be restricted, with losses no longer deductible against wages and salary. The 50% CGT discount is replaced with cost-base indexation and a 30% minimum tax rate on capital gains. New builds retain both tax advantages. Properties held before 7:30pm on 12 May 2026 are fully grandfathered — if you already own investment property, nothing changes. But for anyone buying an established investment property from here on, the calculation is fundamentally different.
Queensland: the market that refuses to follow the script
While Sydney and Melbourne cool sharply, Queensland is outperforming every other state, recording 9.6% dwelling value growth over the past year. Homes are selling in a median of 22 days. Brisbane's rental vacancy rate sits at approximately 0.9%, with rents up 8.3% annually.
Brisbane's median dwelling value reached $1,116,180 as at 30 April 2026. Monthly growth decelerated from 1.8% in March to 1.2% in April, but Brisbane is still posting some of the strongest monthly gains of any Australian capital. Listings are nearly 22% below year-ago levels. You can't buy what isn't there.
The reason Brisbane is holding up comes down to fundamentals that rate rises can slow but not stop: strong population growth, a chronic housing shortage, an ultra-tight rental market, a resilient labour market, and the long runway of the 2032 Olympics. Higher interest rates are acting more like a speed bump here than a brake.
The Redlands and Brisbane Bayside: quiet strength, real numbers
Redland City's 2026 land valuations showed a 20% increase across 63,778 properties, bringing the median residential land value to $610,000. Limited land supply, interstate migration, and affordability pressures flowing out of inner Brisbane and the Gold Coast are all converging here.
The buyer mix has shifted. Agents are reporting stronger interstate inquiry, particularly from Victoria. More first-home buyers are moving further out to the Bayside for space and value. Downsizers are active too. The common thread: people want to be here, and there isn't enough stock to accommodate them.
One dynamic worth watching: the May budget changes may create a lock-in effect among existing Bayside investors, who now have a strong incentive to hold grandfathered properties rather than sell. This could further tighten already-constrained stock.
The questions buyers are actually asking
Is now a bad time to buy with rates this high? In markets with weak fundamentals, yes. In South East Queensland, the supply shortage is doing more work than the rate environment. Buyers who waited for rates to fall in 2025 watched prices rise while they waited. The question is always whether you're buying the right property, not whether the macro timing is perfect.
Will the negative gearing changes hurt local property values? Unlikely in the Redlands and Bayside. Grandfathered investors have a strong hold incentive, which reduces available stock. Owner-occupier demand in this market is strong enough to absorb most of any investor exit.
Are rents going to keep rising? Near-zero vacancy, population growth outpacing construction, and stretched household budgets limiting who can buy are all pointing the same direction. 2026 is unlikely to provide meaningful relief for renters in South East Queensland.
Should I wait for prices to fall? The evidence from South East Queensland doesn't support a meaningful fall scenario in the near term. Structural undersupply, population growth, and the Olympics pipeline are providing a floor that simply isn't present in Sydney or Melbourne. Timing the market is almost always a losing strategy.
Public sentiment: cautious but not panicking
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 12.5% in a single month to 80.1 points nationally. In South East Queensland, the mood is more layered.
Existing owners are reluctant to sell, and grandfathered tax status makes holding even more rational. First-home buyers are cautious but active, with government 5% deposit schemes keeping demand in the market. Upgraders are spending longer on due diligence and making fewer impulsive offers. New investors are the most disrupted cohort, with many pivoting toward new builds or pausing to reassess. Interest is redirecting rather than disappearing.
What the next six months looks like
July to August: a holding pattern with upward pressure The RBA is expected to pause while it assesses the impact of three 2026 hikes. A pause won't cause a rush, but it will stabilise sentiment. Stock will remain tight and prices are likely to keep growing modestly, though well below the 1.8% monthly peaks of early 2026.
September to October: spring supply bump, but not a flood The traditional spring listing uplift will provide more buyer choice. Given the lock-in incentive for grandfathered investors and general reluctance to sell into uncertainty, the increase in supply is likely to be modest. Demand should absorb new listings, particularly for well-presented properties in quality locations.
November to December: selective growth, location-dependent outcomes Established Bayside and Redlands properties are well-positioned. Greenfield and higher-priced fringe property carries more risk as affordability constraints spread. Buyers who move on the right property before Christmas will likely look back at their timing favourably.
The bottom line: South East Queensland is not immune to national headwinds, but it is significantly better insulated than the southern capitals. The buyers most at risk are those choosing property based on national sentiment rather than local fundamentals.
