Why rental growth figures are already old news
A rental growth figure gets published each quarter and treated as news. It's usually a confirmation. The vacancy data behind it had already shown the same thing, months before the number existed.
Cotality's latest data has Ballarat as Victoria's strongest performing regional market for annual rental growth to July 2026, at 5.1 per cent. Next to numbers coming out of other states, that's a modest figure. This isn't a growth story. Ballarat is also a market we buy in for clients, which is part of why it's the example here rather than a market with a bigger number.
SQM Research data shows Ballarat's vacancy rate sitting around 2 per cent in 2024. By late 2025 it had dropped under 1 per cent, well before Cotality's growth figure was published. That tightening predates the negative gearing changes legislated in June 2026, so the pattern was already underway before the policy shift, not caused by it.
Vacancy tends to move first. When vacant rental stock tightens, demand is outpacing supply in that market, and rent growth catches up later.
Why vacancy moves first
This is one market's numbers, used to show a pattern that applies wherever you're holding or buying, not just here.
What tightening vacancy means for buyers and holders
Tight vacancy is good news if you already hold in that market. If you're trying to buy into it, the same conditions usually mean less stock on the market and more competition to secure something.